Skip to main content
06 Our Performance 02 CIO Business Review
12 / 47

The year's two forces were also reflected in global markets, with technology benefiting from the investment cycle and energy responding to the geopolitical shock. Over the past 5 years, both sectors have increasingly cleared above the broad market, demonstrating their growing importance to global markets.

Monetary policy looked through the temporary energy spike. Major central banks had entered the financial year on a gradual easing path as inflation receded. Although the mid-February 2026 price surge briefly complicated that stance, its later reversal broadly allowed most policymakers to preserve the year's easing bias and sustain the accommodative financial conditions that supported activity into the close of the period.

Africa: Resilient growth, strong headwinds

4.5%

Sub-Saharan Africa growth

3.4%

Regional inflation

4.0%

Africa-wide growth

Sub-Saharan Africa grew by an estimated 4.5% in 2025, with activity accelerating broadly across country groups. Regional inflation moderated to around 3.4% by the end of the year, on account of lower global food and oil prices. The continental picture was similar: the Economist Intelligence Unit estimated Africa-wide growth at about 4.0% for 2025, supported by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies.

Against a decade of currency and debt stress, the year stood out for its relative macroeconomic calm. That calm came under pressure following the escalation of the Middle East conflict as it lifted energy, transport, and fertiliser costs; feeding into food prices across a region where food dominates household consumption. The impact divided the continent.

Hydrocarbon exporters such as Nigeria and Angola, together with gold producers, drew temporary support from stronger commodity prices. However, numerous net energy importers faced deteriorating external balances and tighter financing conditions. Compounding this, a marked reduction in donor aid and diminished global risk appetite squeezed financing for economies whose fiscal buffers were already thin. The combination of these developments left the region more exposed to external shocks than its headline growth suggested.

Up nextEast Africa: Strong growth, policy caution

East Africa: Strong growth, policy caution

4.6%

Kenya growth in 2025

5.9%

Tanzania growth in 2025

9.4%

Rwanda growth in 2025

The East African countries remained among the continent's leading resilient economies through FY2025/26, combining robust real-sector growth with the low inflation that had defined recent years. That gentle backdrop shifted only late in the period, as the global energy shock lifted prices across the bloc and turned monetary policy from a regionwide easing stance towards one of caution.

In Kenya, growth held steady, estimated at 4.6% in 2025 and projected to firm to 5.0% in 2026, supported by services, agriculture and rising financial inclusion. Inflation averaged around 4.4% over 2025, comfortably within the 5 +/- 2.5% central bank target band. It then rose to 6.4% by June 2026, as higher fuel and transport costs from the Middle East conflict fed through. The easing cycle of the prior year extended into FY2025/26, with the Central Bank Rate lowered to 8.8% and then held at the June 2026 meeting as the late-year inflation pickup argued for caution. The fiscal deficit remained elevated at around 5.8% of GDP, with public debt the principal constraint, while the political backdrop stayed relatively calm ahead of the 2027 general election.

In Tanzania, growth remained among the region's strongest, estimated at 5.9% in 2025 and projected at 5.7% in 2026. This was mainly underpinned by infrastructure megaprojects, mining, and a recovering manufacturing base. Inflation was exceptionally low, averaging about 3.3% over 2025, before the energy shock lifted it towards 4.7% into 2026. The Bank of Tanzania held its Central Bank Rate at 6.0% for most of the year, maintaining an accommodative stance; while the fiscal deficit stayed contained at around 3.5% of GDP. The October 2025 general election returned President Samia Suluhu Hassan and a ruling-party parliamentary majority, albeit amid youth-led protests, while a widening trade deficit kept the shilling under mild depreciatory pressure.

In Rwanda, the economy posted the region's fastest expansion at 9.4% in 2025, but this was projected to moderate to 6.8% in 2026. The expansion was mainly driven by construction, services, and public investment. Pressure from the Middle East conflict, however, heavily weighed on activity relative to other regional economies. Inflation surged from an average of 5.7% in the second half of 2025, to 12.7% by June 2026. This prompted the Central Bank to pivot to a tightening policy stance in February 2026, raising rates to decade highs. The fiscal deficit widened to about 5.5% of GDP as the government front-loaded priority investment under its 2025/26 budget, with an IMF extended credit facility expected to anchor consolidation thereafter.

Up nextUganda: Stable policy, anchored momentum

NSSF Integrated Report 2026

Ways to navigate

Choose how you would like to explore the digital publication.

Viewing on a laptop

For the best experience on a laptop, view the report in full screen.

In Chrome, open the three-dot menu at the top right, then select the full-screen icon beside Zoom.

To exit, move your pointer to the top of the screen and select the exit full-screen button.

Contents Overview

Quick access

NSSF Integrated Report 2026

Search the Report

Start typing to search the Integrated Report.

Downloads

Download the full report, complete chapters or selected report sections.

01

Report Overview

02

Our Business

03

Our Strategy

04

Our Governance

05

Our Sustainability

06

Our Performance

No sections selected

Share This Page